Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers

✍ Scribed by Rod McCrea; Len Dalgleish; Will Coventry

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2005
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 102 KB
• Volume: 25
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0899-8418
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.1164

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

What encourages use of seasonal climate forecasts? Considerable effort is being applied in developing seasonal climate forecasts and demonstrating the potential benefits available to farmers from using seasonal climate forecasts. This study examines three factors underlying the use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers: the level of forecast understanding by farmers, the format presentation of the forecasts, and the attitude of farmers towards the usefulness of forecasts as indicators of future rainfall. Using judgement analysis, the use of forecasts in cropping decisions was determined for 73 Australian farmers. Then a moderated regression analysis was used to predict forecast use from the three underlying factors. The study found that a good understanding of the forecast was more important than the forecast format in predicting its use. However, this main effect of good understanding on higher use was qualified by a three‐way interaction, such that good understanding was only associated with higher use when farmers had a favourable attitude toward the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts and the forecasts were presented in a frequency format. Thus, the study found all three factors were important in predicting the use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers. However, relatively little is known about farmer attitudes toward the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts and how these attitudes arise, and further research is recommended in these areas. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society