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Seasonal probability of precipitation forecasts using a weighted ensemble approach

✍ Scribed by D. W. Shin; S.-D. Kang; S. Cocke; T.-Y. Goo; H.-D. Kim

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2008
Tongue
English
Weight
314 KB
Volume
28
Category
Article
ISSN
0899-8418

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

A weighted ensemble (WE) method is revisited and employed to issue an improved seasonal probability of precipitation (POP) forecast. Nine boreal summer time seasonal precipitation hindcasts obtained from the APEC (Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation) Climate Center (APCC) multi‐model ensemble system are used to assess the suitability of the WE approach for seasonal POP predictions. Owing to its performance‐based selective nature for assigning weights, the WE method produced marginally superior seasonal POP forecasts compared to the conventional approach. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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