✦ LIBER ✦

Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic

✍ Scribed by Ryo Fujie; Takashi Odagaki

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 2007
Tongue: English
Weight: 342 KB
Volume: 374
Category: Article
ISSN: 0378-4371
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation.

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