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Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

✍ Scribed by C. Lagorio; M.V. Migueles; L.A. Braunstein; E. López; P.A. Macri


Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2009
Tongue
English
Weight
938 KB
Volume
388
Category
Article
ISSN
0378-4371

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✦ Synopsis


We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size s c . Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size M SIR of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P ∞ is an upper bound to M SIR . For small values of s c , P ∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of s c is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P ∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose s c to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q , the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass s c , and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice s c on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.


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