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Does seasonality influence the dating of business cycle turning points?

โœ Scribed by Philip Hans Franses; Richard Paap


Book ID
114130613
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
684 KB
Volume
21
Category
Article
ISSN
0164-0704

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โœ Duk Bin Jun; Young Jin Joo ๐Ÿ“‚ Article ๐Ÿ“… 1993 ๐Ÿ› John Wiley and Sons ๐ŸŒ English โš– 875 KB

A Bayesian statistical method to detect turning points in the leading composite index is introduced. Under the assumption of causal priority of the leading composite index to the business cycle, the turning points in business cycles are predicted by detection of them in the index. The underlying pro