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Forecasting turning points: Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

โœ Scribed by Kenneth M. Emery; Evan F. Koenig


Book ID
116101471
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1992
Tongue
English
Weight
364 KB
Volume
39
Category
Article
ISSN
0165-1765

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A two-step procedure to produce a statistical measure of the probability of being in an accelerating or decelerating phase of economic activity is proposed. It consists of, ยฎrst, an extraction of the individual linear innovations of a set of relevant macroeconomic variables whose signs are accumulat