Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes

✍ Scribed by Samuel H. Preston, Patrick Heuveline, Michel Guillot

• Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
• Year: 2001
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 306
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

“This will be a bible for demographers in coming years and decades.” --Professor James Vaupel, Founding Director, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock
“It is really a graduate-level textbook of formal demography. As such, is needed. I will certainly use it as my basic textbook when it comes out. They have done an excellent job of keeping this interesting and informative.” --Professor Kenneth Hill, Director of the Johns Hopkins Population Center

This book presents and develops the basic methods and models that are used by demographers to study the behavior of human populations. The procedures are clearly and concisely developed from first principles, and extensive applications are presented.
The authors focus on quantitative procedures for studying the growth and structure of populations, including measurement of fertility and mortality, population projection, and equilibrium models. The book also covers procedures for evaluating data quality and estimating demographic parameters when conventional data are deficient. It will provide a comprehensive introduction to demographic methods for all students and researchers in this subject.
- Samuel H. Preston is Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written monographs on mortality patterns, world urbanization, the history of child health, and other subjects. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society.
- Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
- Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania.

✦ Table of Contents

• List of Boxes
• List of Tables
• List of Figures
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• Basic Concepts and Measures
  1.1. Meaning of “Population”
  1.2 The Balancing Equation of Population Change
  1.3. The Structure of Demographic Rates
  1.4 Period Rates and Person-years
  1.5. Principal Period Rates in Demography
  1.6 Growth Rates in Demography
  1.7. Estimating Period Person-years
  1.8 The Concept of a Cohort
  1.9 Probabilities of Occurrence of Events
• Age-specific Rates and Probabilities
  2.1 Period Age-specific Rates
  2.2 Age-standardization
  2.3 Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions
  2.4 The Lexis Diagram
  2.5 Age-specific Probabilities
  2.6 Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year
• The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes
  3.1 Period Life Tables
  3.2 Strategies for Choosing a Set of n_a_x Values and/or for Making the n_m_x->n_q_x Conversion
  3.3 The Very Young Ages
  3.4 The Open-ended Age Interval
  3.5 Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction
  3.6 Interpreting the Life Table
  3.7 The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population
  3.8 Mortality as a Continuous Process
  3.9 Life Table Construction Revisited
  3.10 Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies
  3.11 Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes
• Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation
• Multiple Decrement Processes
  4.1 Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort
  4.2 Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods
  4.3 Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes
  4.4 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data
  4.5 Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies
  4.6 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data
  4.7 Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement
• Fertility and Reproduction
  5.1 Period Fertility Rates
  5.2 Decomposition of Period Fertility
  5.3 Cohort Fertility
  5.4 Birth Interval Analysis
  5.5 Reproduction Measures
• Population Projection
  6.1 Projections and Forecasts
  6.2 Population Projection Methodology
  6.3 The Cohort Component Method
  6.4 Projections in Matrix Notation
  6.5 Population Forecasts
  6.6 The USBOC Projection of the US Population
  6.7 Alternative Forecasting Methods
  6.8 Accuracy and Uncertainty
  6.9 Other Uses of Population Projections
• The Stable Population Model
  7.1 A Simplified Example of a Stable Population
  7.2 Lotka's Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population
  7.3 The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population
  7.4 The “Stable Equivalent” Population
  7.5 The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate
  7.6 The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates
  7.7 The Momentum of Population Growth
  7.8 Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation
  8 Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations
  8.1 An Illustration
  8.2 Relations in Continuous Age and Time
  8.3. Extensions of the Basic Relations
  8.4 Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate
  8.5 Age Structural Dynamics
  8.6 Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation
  9 Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events
  9.1 Model Age Patterns of Mortality
  9.2 Age Patterns of Nuptiality
  9.3. Age Patterns of Fertility
  9.4 Model Age Patterns of Migration
  10 Methods for Evaluating Data Quality
  10.1 Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors
  10.2 Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors
  10.3. Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality
• Indirect Estimation Methods
  11.1. Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method
  11.2 Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood
  11.3 The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality
  11.4 Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories
  11.5 Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distributions at Two Censuses
  12 Increment—Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin)
  12.1. Introduction
  12.2. Increment-Decrement Life Tables
  12.3 Estimation of Increment—Decrement Life Tables
  12.4 Formalization and Generalization of Relations
  12.5 The Simplest Case: A Two-state System
  12.6 Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates
  12.7 Programs for the Calculation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables
• References
• Index

Boxes:
1.1 The balancing equation of population change
1.2 Principal period rates in demography
1.3 Illustration of calculation of growth rates and person-years
2.1 Example of age-standardization
2.2 Decomposition of differences between rates
2.3 Calculating rates and probabilities
2.4 Conventional measures of fetal and early-infancy mortality
3.1 Period life table construction
3.2 Interpreting the life table
3.3 The life table conceived as a stationary population
3.4 Age decomposition of differences in life expectancies at birth
3.5 Application of life table construction to analysis of marital histories
4.1 Multiple decrement life table
4.2 Associated single decrement life table for causes of death other than neoplasms
4.3 Age and cause decomposition of difference in life expectancies at birth
4.4 Associated single decrement tables from current-status data: calculation of singulate mean age at marriage
5.1 Example of computation of age-specific fertility rates and total
5.2 fertility rate
5.2 Computation of Coale's fertility indexes I_m, I_f, I_g
5.3 Contraceptive failure rates using associated single decrement life tables
5.4 Calculation of parity progression ratios
5.5 Calculation of period gross and net reproduction rates
6.1 Cohort-component female-dominant projection in a population closed to migration
6.2 Cohort-component female-dominant projection with migration
7.1 Identification of the intrinsic growth rate
7.2 Construction of a stable-equivalent population
8.3 Estimation of population momentum
8.1 Estimation of marital survival using variable-r
8.2 Application of the death-based variable-r method for estimating mortality
8.3 Computation of the probability that a marriage will end in divorce
9.1 Fitting a Gompertz law of mortality to estimate survivors at older ages
9.2 Estimation of parameters of Brass relational model of mortality
9.3. Estimation of M and m
10.1. Brass method for estimating completeness of death registration
11.1. Estimation of child mortality from information on children ever born and children surviving (Brass method)
11.2 Estimation of adult mortality from information on orphanhood, Hill and Trussell variant
11.3. The sisterhood method for estimating maternal mortality
11.4 Estimation of intercensal mortality by using projection and cumulation

✦ Subjects

statistics, sociology, demographics, mortality, fertility, census, population pyramid, UN, human populations, growth, age-specific mortality, life tables, Markov processes, child mortality, adult mortality, maternal mortality, migration