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Defeasible Conditionalization

โœ Scribed by Paul D. Thorn


Book ID
120745990
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Year
2013
Tongue
English
Weight
288 KB
Volume
43
Category
Article
ISSN
0022-3611

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โœฆ Synopsis


The applicability of Bayesian conditionalization in setting one's posterior probability for a proposition, a, is limited to cases where the value of a corresponding prior probability, P PRI (a|โˆงE), is available, where โˆงE represents one's complete body of evidence. In order to extend probability updating to cases where the prior probabilities needed for Bayesian conditionalization are unavailable, I introduce an inference schema, defeasible conditionalization, which allows one to update one's personal probability in a proposition by conditioning on a proposition that represents a proper subset of one's complete body of evidence. While defeasible conditionalization has wider applicability than standard Bayesian conditionalization (since it may be used when the value of a relevant prior probability, P PRI (a|โˆงE), is unavailable), there are circumstances under which some instances of defeasible conditionalization are unreasonable. To address this difficulty, I outline the conditions under which instances of defeasible conditionalization are defeated. To conclude the article, I suggest that the prescriptions of direct inference and statistical induction can be encoded within the proposed system of probability updating, by the selection of intuitively reasonable prior probabilities.


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