Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Preface
Author
SECTION I: Core Building Blocks
Chapter 1 Energy Systems, Problems, and Risks
Introduction
Problem-Solving
Application Scientific Method (DAMES) in Engineering Problem-Solving: An Example
Objectives of This Book
Risk Taking
Energy Systems Overview
What Is a System?
Example of an Energy System: A Power Grid
Systems Work with Other Systems
Understanding Problems in Energy System Area
Societal and Customer Benefits from Energy Systems
System Requirements Development
Concept Development for a New System
Systems Decomposition
Function Allocation
Risks in Energy Systems
Understandings Risks
Importance of Risk Analysis and Decision-Making
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 2 The Energy Picture
Introduction
U.S. Total Energy Production and Consumption
Customers of Electric Energy
Electricity Generating Sources
Transmission and Distribution of Energy
Electricity Demand and Sources for Meeting the Demand
Household Consumption
Wasted Energy
Generating Efficiency
Energy Systems Issues
Power Generation Technologies
Nuclear Power Plants
Hydroelectric Power Plants
Fossil-Fuel-Fired Power Plants
Diesel-Fired Power Plants
Natural- Gas-Fired Combustion Turbine Plants
Combined-Cycle Power Plants
Solar Power Plants
Wind Power Plants
Geothermal Power Plants
Tidal Power Plants
Other Power Plant-Related Issues
Energy Plant Inputs and Outputs
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Power Plant Technology Specifications
Plant Output and Heat Rate
Plant Building and Operational Costs
Capacity Factors
Environmental Impacts of Electricity Generation
Financial Incentives for Renewables and Energy Efficiencies
JEDI Models
U.S. Map Database with Energy Sources, Transmission, and Distribution
EPA’s Power Profiler
Future Changes in Energy Picture
Annual Energy Outlook
Increasingly Stringent Emissions and Green Energy Requirements
Initiatives of Government Agencies to Combat Climate Change
Reducing Carbon Emissions from Natural-Gas-Fueled Power Plants
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 3 Risk Assessment Methods
Introduction
What Is Risk?
Risk Analysis
Perception of Risk
Types of Risks
Environmental Risks
Cancer and Respiratory Problems
Cleaner Air and Air Quality standards
Risks in Product Development and Product Uses
Risks during Product Development and Manufacturing
Definition of Risk and Types of Risks in Product Development
Types of Risks during Product Uses
Methods for Risk Analysis
Risk Matrix
Risk Priority Number (PRN)
Other Methods
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
An Example of a FMEA
Failure Modes and Effects and Criticality Analysis
Problems in Risk Measurements
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 4 Systems Engineering in Energy Systems Projects
Introduction
Why Systems Engineering?
What Is Systems Engineering?
Systems Engineering Definition
Systems Engineering Approach and Process
An Energy System Example: A Wind Farm
Systems Engineering “V” Model
Left Side of the “V” – Design and Engineering
Right Side of the “V” – Verification, Manufacturing, and Assembly
Right Side of the Diagram – Operation and Disposal
Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP)
Contents of SEMP
Checklist for Critical Information
Role of Systems Engineers
Value of Systems Engineering Management Plan
Advantages of Management by System Attributes
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 5 Safety Engineering in Energy Systems
Introduction and Background
Definition of Safety Engineering
Safety Problems in Energy Systems
Safety Engineering Approach
Importance and Need of Safety Engineering
3Es of Safety Engineering and Countermeasures
Methods Used in Safety Engineering
Definition of an Accident
Accident Causation Theories
Safety Performance Measures
Why Measure Safety Performance?
Currently Used Accident Measures
Accidents-Based Incident Rates
Advantages and Disadvantages of Current Accident-Based Measures
Non-Accident Measures
Safety Analysis Methodologies
Two Possibilities: Accident vs. Hazard
Accident Analysis Methods
Hazard Analysis Methods
Hazard Analysis
General Hazard Analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
Methods Safety Analysis
Checklists to Uncover Hazards
Risk Analysis
Systems Safety Analysis Tools
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Purpose
Description
Application of Boolean Algebra
“AND” Gate
"OR" Gate
An Example: Reliability of Turbine Generator Units in a Power Plant
Fault Tree Development Rules
Fault Tree Example: Home Loses Power
Advantages of Fault Tree Analysis
Accident Data Analysis Tools
Purpose of Accident Data Collection
Flow of Accident Data Collection
Accident Reporting Thresholds
Accident Investigations
Accident Data: Users and Sources
Accident Databases Maintained by Federal Agencies
Safety Performance Monitoring, Evaluation, and Control
Interview and Observational Techniques for Non- Accident Measurement of Safety Performance
Critical Incident Technique (CIT)
Behavioral Sampling
Control Charts
Before vs. After Studies
Security Considerations in Systems Design
Concluding Remarks
References
SECTION II: Measurements, Analysis, and Decision-Making
Chapter 6 Decision-Making Approaches
Introduction
Decision-Making Problem Formulation
Alternatives, Outcomes, and Payoffs
Decision Matrix
Principles Used in Selection of an Alternative
Maximum Expected Value Principle
Other Principles
Subjective vs. Objective Methods
Subjective Methods
Objective Methods
Informational Needs in Decision-Making
Importance of Early Decisions during System or Product Development
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 7 Costs, Revenues, and Time Considerations
Introduction
Types of Costs
Fixed Costs
Variable Costs
Overheads
Safety and Accident Costs
Environmental Costs
Social Cost of Carbon
Calculations Related to Social Cost of Carbon
Social Cost of Methane (SC-CH[sub(4)]) and the Social Cost of Nitrous Oxide (SC-N[sub(2)]O)
Levelized Cost of Technologies
Levelized Cost of Electricity
Levelized Avoided Cost of Electricity
Benefits
Revenues
Power Purchase Agreements
Avoided Costs
Avoided Costs of Electricity
Effect of Time on Costs and Revenues
Effect of Time
Utility Company Example: Present Value Calculations
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 8 Cost–Benetfi Analysis
Introduction
Cost–Benefit Analysis: What Is It?
Why Use Cost–Benefit Analysis?
Steps Involved in Cost–Benefit Analysis
Some Examples of Problems for Application of Cost–Benefit Analysis
Cost–Benefit Analysis of Residential Solar Panels: An Example
Problem
Cost–Benefit Analysis and Calculations
Installed Costs
Operation and Maintenance Cost
Insurance
Present Value of Cost
Avoided Electric Utility Cost
SREC, Net Metering, and Tax Credit Revenue
Net Present Value
Conclusions of the Cost–Benefit Analyses
Exercising Cost–Benefit Model for Sensitivity Analysis
Risks and Uncertainties in Cost–Benefit Analysis
Uncertainties
Controversial Aspects
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 9 Subjective Methods for Risk Assessment
Introduction
Rating on a Scale
An Example of Rating Characteristics of Electricity Generating Power Plant Technologies
Pugh Analysis
An Example of Pugh Diagram Application
Weighted Pugh Analysis
Pugh Analysis to Select Energy Source for Electricity Generating Plants: An Example
Alternate Energy Sources
Alternative 1: Natural Gas Combined Cycle
Alternative 2: Nuclear Power Plant
Alternative 3: Biomass Plant
Alternative 4: Wind Turbines
Alternative 5: Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant
Alternative 6: Hydroelectric Power Plant
Datum: Coal
Attributes Used for Pugh Analysis:
Pugh Analysis
Paired Comparison-Based Methods
Thurstone’s Method of Paired Comparisons
Step 1: Select a Criterion for Evaluation of the Attributes
Step 2: Prepare Description of the Nine Attributes to Be Evaluated
Step 3. Obtain Responses of Each Subject on All Pairs
Step 4. Summarize Responses of All Subjects in Terms of Proportion of Subjects Who Rated the Attribute in the Column More Important than the Attribute in the Row
Step 5: Summary of Response Ratios and Proportions
Step 6: Adjusting p[sub(ij)] Values
Step 7: Computation of Z-values and Scale Values for the Attributes
Analytical Hierarchical Method
Application of Analytical Hierarchy Method to a Multi-Attribute Problem
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Failure Modes and Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
Concluding Remarks
References
SECTION III: Customers, Governments,
and Future Changes
Chapter 10 Energy Users, Societal Needs, and Energy Providers
Introduction
Customer and Societal Needs
Energy Uses and Demands
Customers of Energy Systems
Residential Customers
Commercial Customers
Industrial Customers
Institutional Customers
Transportation Customers
Relationship of Customer Satisfaction, Energy Availability, and Safety
Communication between Customers and Energy Providers
Power Sector Issues
Reliability of Power Sector
Electricity Energy Sources
Energy Providers
Locations of Energy System Facilities
Energy Prices
Liability of Energy Providers
Examples of Lawsuits
Safety, Comfort, and Con venience-Related Special Needs
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 11 Government Regulations
Introduction
U.S. Government Agencies Related to Energy
US Department of Energy
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
Energy Saving Initiatives
DOE Initiatives
NHTSA and EPA Initiatives
Clean Air Act
Control of Common Pollutants
National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA)
Government Requirements in Safety, Emissions, and Fuel Economy
Government Safety Requirements
EPA’s GHG Emissions and NHTSA’s CAFE Standards
Rationale Behind Footprint-based Standard
Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 12 Meeting Future Automotive Fuel Economy and Emissions Requirements
Introduction
Creating a Technology Plan
Risks in Technology Implementation
New Technologies
Design Trends in Powertrain Development
Smaller, Lighter, and More Fuel-Efficient Gasoline Engines
Higher Efficiency Transmissions
Driver Aids and Safety Technologies
Connected Vehicles or V2X Technologies
Self-Driving Vehicles
Light-Weighting Technologies
Aerodynamic Drag Reduction
Concluding Remarks
References
SECTION IV: Current Issues Facing
the Energy Industries
Chapter 13 Smart Grid
Introduction
What Is an Electric Grid?
Challenges Facing the Power Grid
What Is a Smart Grid?
Minimize Electricity Disruption
Giving Consumers Control
Building and Testing the Smart Grid
Grid Operation Centers
Smart Meters
Smart Grid Operation and Benefits
Sampling for Monitoring and Controlling the Power Grid
Data Sharing with Smart Grid
The “Self-Healing” Grid
Smart Grid Costs
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 14 Electricity Storage Technologies
Introduction
Energy Storage
Attributes of an Energy Storage System
Trade-Offs Between Attributes Related to Energy Storage Systems
Currently Available Energy Storage Technologies
Mechanical
Pumped Hydro
Compressed Air
Flywheel
Solid Mass Gravitational
Hydroelectricity
Thermal
Latent Heat Thermal
Electrochemical
Other Chemical
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 15 Infrastructure Standardization for Electric Vehicles
Introduction
What Is Infrastructure for the Electric Vehicles?
What Is Interoperability?
Charging Stations and Chargers for the Electric Vehicles
Charging Stations
Types of Chargers
Conductive Charging
Wireless Charging
Current Status of Charging Stations
Advantages and Disadvantages of Electric Vehicles
Concluding Remarks
References
SECTION V: Applications of Methods: Examples and Illustrations
Chapter 16 Selection of Power Generation Alternatives
Introduction
The Problem
Methodology
Outputs of JEDI Models
Computations of Costs and Benefits for Combinations of Alternatives and Outcomes
Alternative 1: Building a 1429 MW Wind Turbine Plant
Determining the Costs
Determining the Potential Benefit for Each Outcome
Determining Totals and Present Value of Costs and Benefits
Calculating the Profit and Benefit- to-Cost Ratio for Each Alternative Across all Outcomes
Compiling the Results into a Decision Matrix and Compare Alternatives Based on Their Expected Values of Profits and Benefit-to-Cost Ratios
Alternative 2: Building a 575 MW Natural Gas-Fueled Power Plant
Alternative 3: Building a 543 MW Geothermal Power Plant
Alternative 4: Building a 2000 MW Concentrating Solar Power Plant
Alternative 5: Not Building a New Power Plant
Summary of Results
Conclusions
Observations from this Analysis and Improvements
Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 17 Sensitivity and Monte Carlo Analyses
Introduction
Sensitivity Analysis
An Example of Profit from Sale of Electricity
An Illustrative Example of Sensitivity Analysis with Four Alternatives and Four Outcomes
Problem
Selection of Plant Location (Q1)
Issues and Risks (Q2)
Alternatives and Outcomes (Q3)
Cost–Benefit Analysis (Q4)
Spreadsheets
Results
Sensitivity Analysis (Q5)
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique
An Example: Profit from Sale of Electricity
Concluding Remarks
References
Appendix 1: Acronyms, Abbreviation, and Units
Appendix 2: Cost–Benefit Analysis of PV Solar Electric Energy Systems for Residential Use
Appendix 3: Fault Tree and Reliability Analysis
Appendix 4: Decision-Making in Energy Systems
Appendix 5: Cost–Benefit Analysis in Energy Systems
Index