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Comments on “the parameter identification of a population model of China”

✍ Scribed by R.H. Baran; J.P. Coughlin

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1986
Tongue
English
Weight
148 KB
Volume
22
Category
Article
ISSN
0005-1098

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✦ Synopsis

Al~tract--The parametric model used by Zhu and Wan for expressing survival rate as a function of age can be replaced by a simpler model without discernable loss of accuracy. The parameters of this simpler model are subject to easy interpretation.

ZHU AND WAN (1984) have estimated the age-specific survival rate of Chinese people using only the distribution of age from a recent census. Their method consists in fitting a curve to the sequence of ratios {nj+t/n/j=O,l ..... K}, where n i is the number of persons in the age bracket [j,j 47 I) years. Under equilibrium conditions, when each death is offset by a birth, these ratios converge to the survival probabilities {sj}: nj+ l/nj --) sj as nj --, oc,j = 0, I .....

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