Assessing and improving judgemental probability forecasts
โ Scribed by Peter Ayton; George Wright
- Book ID
- 113322431
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1987
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 502 KB
- Volume
- 15
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0305-0483
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
When quantitative models are used for short-term multi-item sales forecasts it is possible that the managers who use such forecasts may disagree with at least some of the estimates obtained, and wish to change them so that they become more consistent with their own (subjective) evaluation of the mar
When managers make revisions to sales forecasts initially generated by a rational quantitative model it is important that the particular forecasts selected for adjustment are those which would benefit most from the adjustment process (i.e. realize high errors). This study reports an empirical invest
A judgemental control task was framed as a problem of medical decision making.The control parameter of a recursive system (i.e. a patient) was initially set so that output (i.e. a diagnostic index) fell outside a designated criterion range (corresponding to health). Subjects were told to bring the s
The judgemental revision of sales forecasts is an issue which is receiving increasing attention in the forecasting literature. This paper compares the performance of forecasts after revision by managers with that of the forecasts which were accepted by them wifhout revision. The data set consists of