✦ LIBER ✦

An examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting

✍ Scribed by Marcus O'Connor; Michael Lawrence

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1989
Tongue: English
Weight: 873 KB
Volume: 8
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980080207

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

This paper examines the accuracy (calibration) of judgemental and selected statistical confidence intervals in time series forecasting. Using the forecasts and forecast errors produced by the deseasonalized single exponential smoothing method, three statistical intervals were produced utilizing three assumptions about the distribution of errors: the normal distribution, the empirical distribution and the distribution based on the Chebyshev inequality. Using 33 real-life time series, results indicated that the judgemental confidence intervals were initially excessively overconfident, thus confirming the finding of Lichtenstein et al. (1982). However, calibration of the judgemental intervals improved considerably with feedback, and was found to be influenced by the degree of forecasting difficulty of the series.

📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES

The role of self-rated ability in the ac

The role of self-rated ability in the accuracy of confidence judgements in eyewitness memory and general knowledge

✍ Timothy J. Perfect 📂 Article 📅 2004 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 90 KB 👁 2 views

Forecasting demand in international mark

Forecasting demand in international markets: The case of correlated time series

✍ Chezy Ofir; Adi Raveh 📂 Article 📅 1987 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 599 KB

In this paper a data analysis tool for analyzing highly correlated time series data is suggested. The main objective is to unify multiple time series into a single series and then apply a univariate method for the purpose of prediction. This method is essentially efficient for analyzing multiple tim

Forecasting the price of farmed Atlantic

Forecasting the price of farmed Atlantic salmon: An integrated econometric and time series approach

✍ Biing-Hwan Lin; Mark Herrmann; Tsae-Yun Lin; Ron C. Mittelhammer 📂 Article 📅 1989 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 650 KB

The demand for and supply of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon in the United States and European Community are estimated using a dynamic specification and monthly statistics spanning from 1983 through 1987. Time series analysis is conducted to generate future values of exogenous variables which are i

Time-series Properties and Forecasts of

Time-series Properties and Forecasts of Crude Steel Consumption in the UK

✍ M. EVANS; S. B. WALTON 📂 Article 📅 1997 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 277 KB 👁 2 views

This paper makes use of simple graphical techniques, a seasonal unit root test and a structural time-series model to obtain information on the time series properties of UK crude steel consumption. It shows that steel consumption has, after the removal of some quite substantial outliers, a fairly con

Diminished Confidence Levels in the Inte

Diminished Confidence Levels in the Interval Estimation of an Unknown Regressor in Model I of Linear Regression

✍ Dr. M. Horn; Dr. W. Rausch 📂 Article 📅 1984 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 404 KB 👁 2 views

For the model ~=/3,,+/?~ z + e (model 1 of linear regression) in the literature confidence estimators of an unknown position z , are given at which either the expectation of y is given (see FIELLER, 1944; FINNEP, 1952), or realizations of y are given (see GRAYBILL, 1981). These confidence regions wi

The use of non-time series information i

The use of non-time series information in sales forecasting: A case study

✍ Bob Edmundson; Michael Lawrence; Marcus O'Connor 📂 Article 📅 1988 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 752 KB

The contribution of product and industry knowledge to the accuracy of sales forecasting was investigated by examining the company forecasts of a leading manufacturer and marketer of consumable products. The company forecasts of I8 products produced by a meeting of marketing, sales, and production pe