Time-series Properties and Forecasts of Crude Steel Consumption in the UK
✍ Scribed by M. EVANS; S. B. WALTON
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 277 KB
- Volume
- 16
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
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✦ Synopsis
This paper makes use of simple graphical techniques, a seasonal unit root test and a structural time-series model to obtain information on the time series properties of UK crude steel consumption. It shows that steel consumption has, after the removal of some quite substantial outliers, a fairly constant seasonal pattern, and a well-de®ned but stochastic business cycle. The long-run movement in steel consumption also appears to be stochastic in nature. These characteristics were used to identify a structural time-series model and the ex-post forecasts obtained from it performed reasonably well. Finally, this paper presents some ex-ante quarterly forecasts for crude steel consumption to the year 1999.