✦ LIBER ✦

A note on diagrams for turning-point diagnostics

✍ Scribed by Stephen B. Jarrell; T. D. Stanley

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1992
Tongue: English
Weight: 283 KB
Volume: 11
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980110406

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

A new diagram for discriminating a forecasting technique's history with respect to the two types of turning-point errors, missed turns and false signals is presented. This diagram extends Theil's original predictionrealization (P-R) presentation so that each of the four quadrants and the axes locates a distinct type of forecasting error or correct forecast, thus reducing much of the former ambiguity. This improvement is accomplished without the loss of any information.

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