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A Martingale Approach to the Investigation of the Duration of a Mild Epidemic

✍ Scribed by Suddhendu Biswas; Mrs. Mariamma Thomas

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1989
Tongue
English
Weight
300 KB
Volume
31
Category
Article
ISSN
0323-3847

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✦ Synopsis

The present paper is ap attempt toevolve a simple methodology to obtain the steady state solution of the duration of a mild epidemic (like conjunctivitis, for which the period of sickness is about a week and the period of immunity following recovery is comparatively large) and also the intensity of the epidemic measured by the numbor of infections during the complete spell of the epidemic. The methodology consists of constructing Martingales based on subcritical and supercriticel forms of a Simple Branching Process; and obtaining the stopping time enabling to evaluate the expected duration of the epidemic and the sampling variance together with the intensity of the epidemic.

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