✦ LIBER ✦

A Note on the Application of Martingales in a Problem of Non-Communicable Epidemics

✍ Scribed by Prof. S. Biswas; Hamed Saad Noor

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1989
Tongue: English
Weight: 275 KB
Volume: 31
Category: Article
ISSN: 0323-3847
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.4710310415

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

The present paper is a Martingale approach to some non-communicable epidemic problem (e.g. cervical cancer). It is assumed the progress of the disease from pre-cancerous lesions to several gradcs of dysplasia and ultimately leading to carcinomia in situ and invaaive cancer follows by consecutive hittings; and the regression (or the backward movement) from these states to ultimately non cancerous state; may be analogous t o consecutive heahgs. Each hitting and healing thus considered to be a birth and death respectively in the density dependent linear birth and death process. Given that a.patient is in some states of dysplasia the problem lies in finding the proportion of patients coming back to noncancerous state and the expected time for the same. Martingales constructed o n a linear birth and death process have been employed to answer the problems.

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