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A comparison of models for forecasting the discovery of hydrocarbon deposits

✍ Scribed by M. Power; J. D. Fuller

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1992
Tongue
English
Weight
729 KB
Volume
11
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis

There are many geologic resource assessment techniques available that can be used to estimate the hydrocarbon potential of frontier basins. The techniques d o not, however, produce discovery rate forecasts, which are critical to government and industry planners. Various methods of predicting the discovery rate in frontier basins are reviewed and appraised within the context of the drilling history of Canada's Scotian Shelf. The reviewed models include a mean historical discovery rate technique, the exponential decline model, a logistic curve technique and a class of models based on a sampling without replacement approach to prediction. Models are found to perform best over the longer forecast horizons, with those models based on the sampling without replacement technique tending to perform best.

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