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Why Should Ensemble Spread Match the RMSE of the Ensemble Mean?

โœ Scribed by Fortin, V.; Abaza, M.; Anctil, F.; Turcotte, R.

Book ID
125973284
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Year
2014
Tongue
English
Weight
203 KB
Volume
15
Category
Article
ISSN
1525-755X

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## Abstract The Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) uses an online inflation factor calculation to calibrate the spread of the ensemble in space and time and counteract the tendency of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to underestimate analysis uncertainty.