✦ LIBER ✦
Why can't a conflict be more like a game?International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 18, Part 3, pages 319–395
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2002
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 19 KB
- Volume
- 15
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0894-3257
- DOI
- 10.1002/bdm.436
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
As the US ponders an invasion of Iraq, it would be useful to predict decisions that will me made by various parties. Typically, this is done by experts, but some have recommended the use of game theory. In a study reported in the latest International Journal of Forecasting (18:3), Kesten Green found that expert forecasts of decisions in five conflicts were dismal, and game theorists were no more accurate. Contrary to the beliefs of experts, however, simulated interaction (a variation of role playing) provided forecasts that were much more accurate than those from game theorists. These findings were published along with commentary by J.