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What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom

โœ Scribed by Alan Collins; Chris Hand; Martin C. Snell

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2002
Tongue
English
Weight
164 KB
Volume
23
Category
Article
ISSN
0143-6570

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โœฆ Synopsis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable attributes within an OLS model. We adopt De Vany and Walls' approach and transform the revenue data into a binary variable and estimate the probability that a film's revenue will exceed a given threshold value; in other words, the probability of a blockbuster. Furthermore, we provide a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values. Copyright ยฉ 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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