What kind of initial errors cause the severest prediction uncertainty of El Niño in Zebiak-Cane model

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and s

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Niño events in the Zebiak–Cane model

✍ Yanshan Yu; Wansuo Duan; Hui Xu; Mu Mu 📂 Article 📅 2009 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 550 KB

## Abstract With the intermediate‐complexity Zebiak–Cane model, we investigate the ‘spring predictability barrier’ (SPB) problem for El Niño events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Niño events and acts as the initial