What do we learn from the price of crude
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Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian
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Article
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2010
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John Wiley and Sons
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English
β 284 KB
## Abstract Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the meanβsquared prediction error sense than noβchange forecasts. This result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price, as captured by the oi