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Validation of outcome prediction in elderly patients

✍ Scribed by A. K. Jandziol; S. A. Ridley

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2000
Tongue
English
Weight
108 KB
Volume
55
Category
Article
ISSN
0003-2409

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✦ Synopsis

We recently described an equation for predicting the 1‐year survival of critically ill patients aged over 70 years. The aim of this study was to check the performance of this equation in a validation group of 555 patients. The required demographic details (age, diagnosis, acute physiology score) of all elderly patients admitted between 1/4/95 and 31/9/96 were recorded and patients were followed for 1 year. One hundred and six patients died on the intensive care unit (19% mortality) and a further 134 died within 1 year (43% total 1‐year mortality). The performance of the predictive equation was modest; the goodness‐of‐fit p‐value was 0.04 and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75. For both groups, the combined 1‐year survival of all critically ill elderly patients was 55% but the outcome of patients aged over 85 years remains poor (37%).

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