Validation and refinement of scores to predict very early stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack
โ Scribed by S Claiborne Johnston; Peter M Rothwell; Mai N Nguyen-Huynh; Matthew F Giles; Jacob S Elkins; Allan L Bernstein; Stephen Sidney
- Book ID
- 117300583
- Publisher
- The Lancet
- Year
- 2007
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 134 KB
- Volume
- 369
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0140-6736
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
Background We aimed to validate two similar existing prognostic scores for early risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and to derive and validate a unifi ed score optimised for prediction of 2-day stroke risk to inform emergency management. Methods The California and ABCD scores were validated in four independent groups of patients (n=2893) diagnosed with TIA in emergency departments and clinics in defi ned populations in the USA and UK. Prognostic value was quantifi ed with c statistics. The two groups used to derive the original scores (n=1916) were used to derive a new unifi ed score based on logistic regression. Findings The two existing scores predicted the risk of stroke similarly in each of the four validation cohorts, for stroke risks at 2 days, 7 days, and 90 days (c statistics 0โข60-0โข81). In both derivation groups, c statistics were improved for a unifi ed score based on fi ve factors (age โฅ60 years [1 point]; blood pressure โฅ140/90 mm Hg [1]; clinical features: unilateral weakness [2], speech impairment without weakness [1]; duration โฅ60 min [2] or 10-59 min [1]; and diabetes [1]). This score, ABCD 2 , validated well (c statistics 0โข62-0โข83); overall, 1012 (21%) of patients were classifi ed as high risk (score 6-7, 8โข1% 2-day risk), 2169 (45%) as moderate risk (score 4-5, 4โข1%), and 1628 (34%) as low risk (score 0-3, 1โข0%).Implications Existing prognostic scores for stroke risk after TIA validate well on multiple independent cohorts, but the unifi ed ABCD 2 score is likely to be most predictive. Patients at high risk need immediate evaluation to optimise stroke prevention.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES