Use of a priori-a posteriori models of change in policy analysis: Applications to simulating the white flight phenomenon

✍ Scribed by James E. Bruno; Osher Doctorow; Christhart H. Kappner

• Publisher: Springer US
• Year: 1981
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 956 KB
• Volume: 14
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0032-2687
• DOI: 10.1007/bf00137505

✦ Synopsis

Theory is the foundation of policy studies in the social sciences; its specification via a model is a key element in the selection of appropriate methodologies to study policy. Many policy analysts, due to their professional training and the availability of computer software, sometimes fail to distinguish between theory which is a priori based or theory that is a posteriori based; hence they tend to develop a dependence on one type of methodology in their studies. The purpose of this study is to examine empirically how this important dichotomy might lead to different methods of analysis and to possibly erroneous conclusions. In some cases, the poor selection of research methods severely limits the range of findings and insights available to the policy analyst. The applications of a priori and a posteriori based models to educational policy studies of white flight are presented and the results compared to underscore the importance of recognizing the distinctions between a priori and a posteriori models.