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Univariate Forecasting Comparisons: The Case of the Spanish Automobile Industry

✍ Scribed by A. GARCÍA-FERRER; J. DEL HOYO; A. S. MARTÍN-ARROYO

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1997
Tongue
English
Weight
205 KB
Volume
16
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of unobserved component models, when compared with the standard ARIMA univariate approach. A forecasting exercise is carried out with each method, using monthly time series of automobile sales in Spain. The accuracy of the dierent methods is assessed by comparing several measures of forecasting performance based on the out-of-sample predictions for various horizons, as well as dierent assumptions on the models' parameters. Overall there seems little to choose between the methods in forecasting performance terms but the recursive unobserved component models provide greater ¯exibility for adaptive applications.

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