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Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?

โœ Scribed by Marco Bianchi; Gylfi Zoega

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1998
Tongue
English
Weight
262 KB
Volume
13
Category
Article
ISSN
0883-7252

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โœฆ Synopsis

One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, we use a statistical analysis based on Markov switching regression models to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of ยฎfteen countries. We ยฎnd that in most countries, unemployment persistence is much reduced once the (infrequently) changing mean rate, induced by large shocks to unemployment, has been removed. We conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with multiple equilibria models and models with an endogeneous natural rate.

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