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Uncertainty in reliability evaluation processes and a simulation approach to treating it

✍ Scribed by Mirko Vujošević

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1987
Tongue
English
Weight
489 KB
Volume
32
Category
Article
ISSN
0377-2217

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✦ Synopsis

This paper considers the problem of uncertainty in reliability data that are used in many decision making processes and describes a simulation approach to dealing explicitly with this uncertainty. The causes of uncertainty are discussed for three different situations: (a) in the process of designing new systems, when failure data are not yet available, (b) after performing reliability test and gathering failure data, and (c) in mission reliability prediction. It is concluded that, in perfotming reliability prediction or failure rate prediction, one should use interval estimates rather than point estimates. These intervals can be used to perform component classification and then, employing simulation, to obtain tables or scattergrams for the mean time between failures of a system or for system reliability.

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