Uncertainty assessment in the prediction of extreme rainfall events: an example from the central Spanish Pyrenees
✍ Scribed by J. M. García-Ruiz; J. Arnáez; S. M. White; A. Lorente; S. Beguería
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2000
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 155 KB
- Volume
- 14
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0885-6087
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✦ Synopsis
Extreme rainfall events occur frequently in the central Pyrenees, but they are responsible for mass movements and short, very intense erosion periods, accompanied at times by loss of human life and high costs of infrastructure. This paper tries to assess the existence of patterns in the spatial distribution of maximum precipitation. The calculation of return periods of the most intense rainfall demonstrates that in the Pyrenees it exhibits an erratic spatial and temporal distribution and can be extremely localized. In the case of precipitation between 150 and 200 mm in 24 h, some in¯uence from the surrounding relief has been found, but this is not the case for precipitation exceeding 200 mm, characterized by the absence of patterns governing their spatial distribution. Geomorphological approaches are, therefore, the only way for assessing the areas more subject to hydromorphological risks.