Tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean: Track prediction and verification of the UKMO model for 1991–92
✍ Scribed by Jan H Vermeulen
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2007
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 314 KB
- Volume
- 2
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1350-4827
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✦ Synopsis
The aim of this paper is to evaluate tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model in the south-west Zndian Ocean for 1991-92. These results are then compared with similar results for 1989-90 and 1990-91. Displacement errors are used for the evaluation of TC track predictions of individual TCs for forecast days 1 to 5 . The Dvorak-number is used to determine TC intensity. The skill of the numerical weather prediction model of the U K M O varies from high for the intense TCs to low for the weak TCs. Similar results were found for the western North Paciftc by other researchers and is probably caused by deficiencies in the bogussing techniques.