Towards a macro model of National Health Service waiting lists
✍ Scribed by Ann van Ackere; Peter C. Smith
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1999
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 268 KB
- Volume
- 15
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0883-7066
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Waiting lists for elective surgery have been endemic to the UK National Health Service since its inception in 1948. The lists arise as a result of interaction between supply factors (the provision of resources and the eciency of their use) and demand factors (arising from a complex conjunction of the perceptions and preferences of patients and physicians). This article takes the ®rst steps towards the development of a macro model of the NHS waiting list. It adopts an economics perspective and assumes that the waiting time for surgery, as perceived by patients, physicians and managers, is a central in¯uence on the quantity of elective surgery demanded and supplied. Using the methods of system dynamics, econometric results are integrated into a dynamic model that seeks to illustrate the path taken over time by the national system of elective surgery. It explores a number of future scenarios, and ®nds that the NHS will quickly cease to be a universal service if resources fail to keep pace with increases in demand.