Abstract
In a liberalized power industry, key information used to determine how much can be transferred through the network is known as total transfer capability (TTC). Without considering the uncertain nature of power systems, we would be even skeptical whether TTC is actually meaningful in practice. This paper primarily purports to determine TTC based on the fuzzy set theory for continuation power flow (CPF), thereby capturing uncertainty. Given that uncertainties in the TTC calculation are estimated or measured, major uncertainty parameters affecting the TTC are replaced by fuzzy variables subject to their probability distributions in a fuzzy model. The purpose of this paper is to embark upon main features of the fuzzy continuation power flow (FCPF) algorithm that may effectively deal with uncertainties of load parameters and bus injections as well. For more realistic fuzzy modeling, the correlation algorithm is developed by integrating a correction phase into the FCPF results, aiming at reducing the range of the membership functions if there is accompanying information. Exposure and robustness indices based on risk analysis concepts are defined in this analytical framework. As such, the robust solution will assist in providing additional information on the actual ability of the network to a system operator. In other respects, it poses a significant influence on the potential curtailment of power trades from which the reinforcement strategy can be made by the system operator. The viability of the proposed method would be verified through a stark contrast with those obtained from the conventional CPF and the fuzzy power flow (FPF) in the IEEEโ118 bus system. Copyright ยฉ 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.