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Threats to sustainability: simulating conflict within and between nations

✍ Scribed by Annababette Wils; Matilde Kamiya; Nazli Choucri

Book ID: 101294374
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1998
Tongue: English
Weight: 358 KB
Volume: 14
Category: Article
ISSN: 0883-7066
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199822/23)14:2/3<129::aid-sdr146>3.0.co;2-6

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✦ Synopsis

Violent con¯ict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that aect sustainable development also in¯uence con¯ict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while con¯ict, in turn, aects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent con¯ict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con¯ict is perpetuated in a cycle that is dicult to break. *

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