The value of updating ensemble streamflow prediction in reservoir operations

✍ Scribed by Hyung-Il Eum; Young-Oh Kim

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2010
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 352 KB
• Volume: 24
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0885-6087
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7702

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

This study proposes a new monthly ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting system that can update the ESP in the middle of a month to reflect the meteorological and hydrological variations during that month. The reservoir operating policies derived from a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model using ESP scenarios updated three times a month were applied to the Geum River basin to measure the value of updated ESP for 21 years with 100 initial storage combinations. The results clearly demonstrate that updating the ESP scenario improves the accuracy of the forecasts and consequently their operational benefit. This study also proves that the accuracy of the ESP scenario, particularly when high flows occur, has a considerable effect on the reservoir operations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.