The use of cutsets in Monte Carlo analysis of stochastic networks

✍ Scribed by C.E. Sigal; A.A.B. Pritsker; J.J. Solberg

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 1979
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 712 KB
• Volume: 21
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0378-4754
• DOI: 10.1016/0378-4754(79)90007-7

✦ Synopsis

c'lonte Carlo methods utilizing a new network concept, Uniformly Direcied 0itsets (UL'Cs), are presented for analyzing directed, acyclic networks with probabilistic arc durations. DE procedures involve sampling arc values for arcs not on a UDC and utilizing knowi? probnbilil~~ in"formation for arcs on a UK.

This approach results in less sampling effort and Zess associated variance than a straightforward simulation approach. i! proo_f o>f this variance reduction is offered. The i:rocedures provide estimates for project completion time disLributions, criticality indices, minimum time distributions and path optimalitjy iiziices. All of these network per,formance mcaswes are usefu2 to decision makers in project planning. application areas include .~~?-t~~pe network planning, equipment replacement analysis, reliability modeling, stochastic dynamic progranrming problems and maximal flow problems.