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The use of ARIMA models for reliability forecasting and analysis

โœ Scribed by S.L. Ho; M. Xie

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1998
Tongue
English
Weight
279 KB
Volume
35
Category
Article
ISSN
0360-8352

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โœฆ Synopsis

This paper investigates the approach to repairable system reliability forecasting based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. This time series technique makes very few assumptions and is very flexible. It is theoretically and statistically sound in its foundation and no a priori postulation of models is required when analysing failure data. An illustrative example on a mechanical system failures is presented. Comparison is also made with the traditional Duane model. It is concluded that ARIMA model is a viable alternative that gives satisfactory results in terms of its predictive performance.

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