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The potential long-range predictability of temperature over New Zealand

✍ Scribed by MADDEN, ROLAND A.; KIDSON, JOHN W.

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1997
Tongue: English
Weight: 215 KB
Volume: 17
Category: Article
ISSN: 0899-8418
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199704)17:5<483::aid-joc135>3.0.co;2-c

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✦ Synopsis

Estimates of climate noise are made from temperature records of 20 New Zealand stations. The climate noise is variability of finite time averages, which is due to day-to-day fluctuations in weather, and it is unpredictable at long range (exceeding deterministic predictability limits of about 2 weeks). This unpredictable part of seasonal or monthly averages is compared with the actual variance of these averages. The amount by which the actual variance exceeds the noise variance is taken to be a measure of the potential long-range predictability. We find that about 50 per cent of the variance of seasonally averaged temperatures is potentially predictable except for winter (June-July-August), when it is less.

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