This study examines the long-term persistence in ex ante real interest rates. According to the long-run Fisher effect, ex ante real ratesรthe difference between nominal rates and expected inยฏationรshould be mean-reverting and have no unit root. Empirical evidence on mean reversion has been mixed and
The persistence in international real interest rates
โ Scribed by David E. Rapach; Mark E. Wohar
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2004
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 106 KB
- Volume
- 9
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1076-9307
- DOI
- 10.1002/ijfe.254
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the degree of persistence in quarterly postwar taxโadjusted ex post real interest rates for 13 industrialized countries using two recently developed econometric procedures. Our results show that international taxโadjusted real interest rates are typically very persistent, with the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for the sum of the autoregressive coefficients very close to 0.90 for nearly every country. A highly persistent real interest rate has important theoretical implications. Copyright ยฉ 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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