The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was initially created to predict survival in patients with complications of portal hypertension undergoing elective placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. The MELD which uses only objective variables was validated subsequently as an accurate predictor of survival among different populations of patients with advanced liver disease. The major use of the MELD score has been in allocation of organs for liver transplantation. However, the MELD score has also been shown to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis who have infections, variceal bleeding, as well as in patients with fulminant hepatic failure and alcoholic hepatitis. MELD may be used in selection of patients for surgery other than liver transplantation and in determining optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are not candidates for liver transplantation. Despite the many advantages of the MELD score, there are approximately 15%-20% of patients whose survival cannot be accurately predicted by the MELD score. It is possible that the addition of variables that are better determinants of liver and renal function may improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Efforts at further refinement and validation of the MELD score will continue. (HEPATOLOGY 2007;45:797-805.)
Creation and Validation of MELD
MELD was initially created to predict survival following elective placement of TIPS. 1 The model was subsequently validated as a predictor of survival in several cohorts of patients with varying levels of liver disease severity (e.g., hospitalized and ambulatory patients), as well as patients of geographically and temporally diverse origin. 2 The survival model was initially termed the "Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease" or "MELD" model to acknowledge the affiliation of the investigators who created the model. During discussions leading to the establishment of MELD as the basis for prioritization of organs for liver transplantation, 3,4 we changed the name to "Model for End-Stage Liver Disease" which maintained the acronym "MELD", but removed the association with a particular institution, a process that was thought would lead to wider acceptance of the model.
MELD incorporates 3 widely available laboratory variables including the international normalized ratio (INR), serum creatinine, and serum bilirubin. The original mathematical formula for MELD is: MELD ฯญ 9.57 ฯซ log e (creatinine) ฯฉ 3.78 ฯซ Log e (total bilirubin) ฯฉ 11.2 ฯซ Log e (INR) ฯฉ 6.43.
The score can be calculated on handheld computing devices, and is available at www.mayoclinic.org/gi-rst/ mayomodel5.html. When the model was initially created the etiology of cirrhosis was also included. In the TIPS