The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters

✍ Scribed by Karl Spielmann

Publisher: Routledge
Year: 2018
Tongue: English
Leaves: 119
Category: Library

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Table of Contents

Cover
Half Title
Book Title
Copyright
Table of Contents
List of illustrations
Tables
Boxes
Preface: revisiting an old problem—new concerns, new remedies
Notes
Bibliography
1 Maybe it’s time for something different
An insider’s perspective on the problem
The logic of intelligence analysis: back to basics
Some special challenges for alternative hypothesis testing
The case for alternative methodology testing
Chances for change?
Notes
Bibliography
2 Strengthening intelligence threat analysis
Alternative analysis
Falling short of potential
Accepting the conventional wisdom
Enhanced analytic techniques
Technique one: prudently stretch analytic imagination by testing many hypotheses
Technique two: independently check source vetting to better detect deception
Technique three: systematically assess missing data to better determine validity and detect foreign denial
Technique four: make a common sense start with a zero-based review of a dominant view’s evidence and reasoning
Putting the techniques together: a coherent process to assess and predict threats
Notes
Bibliography
3 Using enhanced analytic techniques for threat analysis: a case study illustration
A hypothetical case study to show how enhanced analytic techniques can be used
The zero-based review in the hypothetical scenario
A dominant view’s data support: what a zero-based review can show
The new inconsistency test in the hypothetical scenario
The missing data test in the hypothetical scenario
Taking it from here
Notes
Bibliography
4 I got algorithm: can there be a Nate Silver in intelligence?
Eight challenges for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool
Judging the prospects for statistical probability analysis as a threat analysis tool
The heart of the matter: improving intelligence prediction
Are practical steps enough to improve prediction or is computer help needed?
Notes
Bibliography
Index

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