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The error bounds of combined forecasting

✍ Scribed by Xiaowo Tang; Zongfang Zhou; Yong Shi

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2002
Tongue
English
Weight
513 KB
Volume
36
Category
Article
ISSN
0895-7177

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✦ Synopsis

In this paper, we describe a mathematical framework of estimating the er-ror bounds of optimal combined forecasting (OCF) and the super-bound of nonoptimal combined forecasting errors. We also determine the existent interval [x,i,/n, X,,, /n] of the minimal errors square sum J* of optimal combined forecasting. Furthermore, we give the relationships between the errors of the general combined forecasting method (including the simple average method) and the errors of each forecasting model in the combination by mathematics analysis.

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