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The ensemble-transform scheme adapted for the generation of stochastic forecast perturbations

✍ Scribed by Justin G. McLay; Craig H. Bishop; Carolyn A. Reynolds

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
308 KB
Volume
133
Category
Article
ISSN
0035-9009

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

A method for generating stochastic perturbations is derived from the ensemble‐transform analysis‐error sampling scheme. The method produces stochastic perturbations that not only have multivariate spatial correlation, balance, and prescribed mean and variance statistics, but also conditioning for growth. The perturbations can serve as modification for numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble forecasts either during integration or post‐processing. A practical demonstration of the method is given, in which operational global NWP ensemble forecasts are modified with the stochastic perturbations as a post‐processing exercise. The results suggest that the method can produce stochastic perturbations whose spatially‐integrated statistics match target mean and variance statistics reasonably well, if a moderate number of archived NWP forecast perturbations are provided as input. They also suggest that the stochastic perturbations' correlation, balance, and conditioning for growth are functional, in the sense that the perturbations are not predisposed to marked decay at the outset of integration by an NWP model. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

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