The effect of climatic variations on the significance of agricultural planning data

✍ Scribed by Klaus-Wolfgang Michalczyk

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 1979
• Weight: 446 KB
• Volume: 20
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0002-1571
• DOI: 10.1016/0002-1571(79)90006-2

✦ Synopsis

Instrumental observations of weather which have been made in the last three centuries confirm that climatic variations exist. These show no regularity with respect to either amplitude or frequency. To this date no successful estimation of climatic variation has been made on a scientific basis. For this reason climatic forecasts must be made by recourse to statistical probabilities which are themselves based on long series of observations.

In the agricultural field, a statistical forecast of climatic conditions is relevant in that it enables one to determine what average operating conditions can be expected over a long period, thereby making it possible for the farmer to select his machinery in such a way as to avoid inordinate investment and, at the same time, acquire sufficient equipment to produce the highest possible yield through timely completion of work.

This paper investigates the question of the optimum length of observational periods on which an adequate forecast for the agricultural field can be made.