The Discrete Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores
β Scribed by Weigel, Andreas P.; Liniger, Mark A.; Appenzeller, Christof
- Book ID
- 120831321
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Year
- 2007
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 269 KB
- Volume
- 135
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0027-0644
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
π SIMILAR VOLUMES
## Abstract Relatively little attention has been given to the effects of serial correlation of forecasts and observations on the sampling properties of forecast verification statistics. An assumption of serial independence for lowβquality forecasts may be reasonable. However, forecasts of sufficien
## Abstract Four recent papers have investigated the effects of ensemble size on the Brier score (BS) and discrete ranked probability score (RPS) attained by ensembleβbased probabilistic forecasts. The connections between these papers are described and their results are generalized. In particular,
## Abstract The Brier score and Brier skill score are commonly used measures for evaluating probability forecasts. An oftβcited desirable property of these measures is that they are strictly proper, meaning that forecasters wishing to optimise the expected value of these measures should report thei