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The decline in the incidence of stomach cancer in sweden 1960-1984: A birth cohort phenomenon

✍ Scribed by Lars-Erik Hansson; Reinhold Bergström; PÄR Sparjén; Hans-Olov Adami


Book ID
102867556
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1991
Tongue
French
Weight
523 KB
Volume
47
Category
Article
ISSN
0020-7136

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✦ Synopsis


Trends in the incidence of stomach cancer among 52,604 patients notified to the National Swedish Cancer Registry in I960 through I984 were analysed. Age-standardized incidence rates declined throughout the period, from 47.1 to 24.6 per lo5 in males and from 23.8 to 12.7 per lo5 in females. Among males the decline in incidence was more pronounced in younger age strata, 3S54 years, while in females it reached a maximum at ages 70-74 years. In a multivariate analysis the age-cohort model adequately represented the data and there was no reason to separate the effects of the full ageperiod-cohort model. Compared with the cohort born in 18761 884, the relative risk of developing stomach cancer was 0.46 (95% Cl:0.44-0.48) in males and 0.39 (95% Cl:0.37-0.42) in females born in 19061914. This supports the view that the declining incidence is due to a change in the exposure of the population to aetiological factors of stomach cancer and not to refinement of the diagnosis and classification of abdominal tumours. The results also imply that exposure to aetiological factors early in life together with a long induction period is of importance in the development of stomach cancer.


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