## Abstract As part of the Fed's daily operating procedure, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Board of Governors and the Treasury make a forecast of that day's Treasury balance at the Fed. These forecasts are an integral part of the Fed's daily operating procedure. Errors in these forecasts
The balance of effort in forecasting
โ Scribed by Robert Goodell Brown
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1982
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 392 KB
- Volume
- 1
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
Abstract
This paper discusses some problems currently facing forecasters and expresses some of the author's beliefs of how such problems can be handled. It is the author's hope that such discussion will help practitioners to understand and better deal with these problems while, at the same time, stimulate research and influence the thinking of academicians. As with the previous work of this author, the present paper will be practical and brief.
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A procedure for estimating state space models for multivariate distributed lag processes is described. It involves singular value decomposition techniques and yields an internally balanced state space representation which has attractive properties. Following the specifications of a forecasting compe