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The accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts for G7 countries

✍ Scribed by Jordi Pons

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2000
Tongue
English
Weight
116 KB
Volume
19
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis

This paper analyses the size and nature of the errors in GDP forecasts in the G7 countries from 1971 to 1995. These GDP short-term forecasts are produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the Economic Outlook and in the World Economic Outlook, respectively. The evaluation of the accuracy of the forecasts is based on the properties of the dierence between the realization and the forecast. A forecast is considered to be accurate if it is unbiased and ecient. A forecast is unbiased if its average deviation from the outcome is zero, and it is ecient if it reΒ―ects all the information that is available at the time the forecast is made. Finally, we also examine tests of directional accuracy and oer a non-parametric method of assessment.

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