β Scribed by John Sterman
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
I first met Andy over 20 years ago at the system dynamics group at Dartmouth College, when he was a doctoral student and I was an undergraduate. The Dartmouth group, led by Dana and Dennis Meadows, focused on resources and the environment. Their work led to a series of enormously successful and influential system dynamics models, including Roger Naill's work at the Department of Energy and George Backus's integrated energy planning models, now in use by the U.S. federal government, nearly all the states and many other nations. While Roger's and George's dissertations focused on the dynamics of fossil fuels, Andy developed a model of the electric utility industry, which has blossomed into a set of comprehensive, detailed models of the electric power industry and its customers, suppliers, and regulators.
System dynamics is well suited for study of the electric power industry. It is a large and vitally important sector of the economy. Industry assets total about $1 trillion, and investment absorbs approximately $100 billion each year. Moving beyond mere economics, the industry has enormous impact on global ecosystems. The Pace University Center for Environmental and Legal Studies reports that "The electric power industry is responsible for around 16 billion tons/year of sulfur dioxide emissions, roughly two-thirds of the SO 2 emissions in the U.S. And the industry is responsible for around one-third of the nation's NO 2 emissions as well as one-third of the nation's greenhouse gas emissions."
The industry is also dynamically complex, characterized by long delays, multiple feedbacks and tight couplings among utilities, regulators, customers, and suppliers. Even in the 'good old days' when the electric power industry was regulated as a natural monopoly, demand forecasting and capacity planning were difficult owing to the long lead times for conventional power plants (up to a decade or more, when one counts planning, permitting, design, and construction).
Today, the utility industry is one of the most dynamic and exciting in the economy. Solar, wind, fluidized beds and cogeneration technologies compete against traditional coal-and oil-fired plants. Utilities are experimenting with spot markets where price varies with load in real time and "smart" appliances automatically turn themselves on when power is cheap and off when prices are high. Environmental issues such as air pollution, nuclear waste disposal, and
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