𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

✍ Scribed by Alberto Alesina; John Londregan; Howard Rosenthal

Book ID
104633970
Publisher
Springer US
Year
1996
Tongue
English
Weight
510 KB
Volume
88
Category
Article
ISSN
0048-5829

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916-1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.

πŸ“œ SIMILAR VOLUMES

On the limitations of comparing mean squ
On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors: Comment
✍ Richard A. Meese πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 1993 πŸ› John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English βš– 189 KB

See Chinn and Meese (1992) for evidence and justification of constrained parameter values. They use x(r) = [ s ( t )log(rn(r)/rn\*(r)) + 0.75 log(y(f)/y\*(t)) -4.5(i(f) -i\*(r))l, where rn, y , and i are domestic money supply, real income, and interest rate proxies, respectively. Foreign values of t

Are all crowds equally wise? a compariso
Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public
✍ Lennart SjΓΆberg πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 2009 πŸ› John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English βš– 197 KB

## Abstract Four groups made forecasts of the outcome of the Swedish Parliamentary election in the fall of 2006. They consisted of members of the public, political scientists, journalists writing about domestic politics in Swedish daily newspapers, and journalists who were editing sections of reade