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Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions

โœ Scribed by J. Douglas Zechar; Thomas H. Jordan


Book ID
108747303
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2008
Tongue
English
Weight
684 KB
Volume
172
Category
Article
ISSN
0956-540X

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## ABSTRACT In this paper we derive a test of predictability by exploring the possibility that forecasts from a given model, adjusted by a shrinkage factor, will display lower mean squared prediction errors than forecasts from a simple random walk. This generalizes most previous tests which compare